For over centennial, Tampa Bay avoided Florida’s most destructive hurricanes. Now Hurricane Milton may end that streak, as predicted to reach land south of Tampa Bay early Thursday. The low-lying coastline, still strewn with debris from last month’s Hurricane Helene, is bracing for storm surge of up to 5 meters.
Tampa Bay’s shallow seabed and built-up coastline make it particularly vulnerable to hurricanes. AND Report from 2015 from disaster designers Karen Clarke & Co ranked Tampa – St. Petersburg area as the city most exposed to storm flooding in the USA. Despite multiple reports confirming the area’s vulnerability to storm surges, plans to strengthen the area’s defenses have been delayed and in some cases vetoed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Now the area will face the deadliest storm in a century, drawing on many of its aging storm defenses.
The geography of Tampa Bay makes it particularly ill-prepared to deal with a storm like Hurricane Milton. The shallow coastal shelf and narrow mouth of the bay, combined with hurricane-force winds, can send huge amounts of water onto the heavily built-up coastline, where half the population lives less than 10 feet above sea level. As the city flourished in the 20th century, new events piled up along the shoreline, placing residents close to potential storm surges.
Karen Clarke & Co estimated that damage from the once-in-100-year hurricane in Tampa Bay could be as much as $175 billion – more than almost any other hurricane in U.S. history. AND Analysis 2019 analyzes of the area’s transportation network have shown that major portions of the Tampa Bay road system, including one causeway and two bridges that cross the bay, are extremely vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The report called for improved drainage, raised roads and protection of shorelines.
Despite these gaps, some projects to protect Tampa Bay from storm surges have been tardy to progress. Flooding following Hurricane Idalia in 2023 revealed that stormwater pipes were unmaintained, blocked by debris, and not equipped to effectively handle floodwaters, according to reports released in 2023. Times in Tampa Bay. In August, the Clearwater City Council voted for the increase fees for the utilize of storm sewage systems to cover the costs of modernizing the sewage system.
However, other flood control projects were vetoed by DeSantis. The project it will replace 30-year-old stormwater infrastructure in the city of Dunedin in Pinellas County, located between the city of Tampa and the Gulf of Mexico, was vetoed for the 2024–2025 fiscal year. Other Pinellas County flood control projects vetoed by DeSantis include utility plans backup power at sewer pumps buy emergency generators for fire stations, redirect rainwaterAND defend the theater from flood waters.
Projects vetoed in Hillsborough Country, on Pinellas Bay, include a plan increasing the sewage treatment plant’s resilience to severe weather conditions and a 3,500-foot pipe installation project mangroves and oyster reefs, which can aid reduce the height and strength of storm surges.