Before last week the name Alap Shah was not familiar to many people. The 45-year-old financial analyst and technology entrepreneur has spent the last two decades working in relative obscurity. Then last weekend, he co-authored a blog with research firm Citrini titled “Global Intelligence Crisis 2028.” It was a “thought exercise” on the impact of artificial intelligence that predicted that by June of this year, artificial intelligence would augment unemployment above 10 percent and cause the Dow to decline. Writing in a confident, Nostradamian tone – as if they were auditioning for the main roles in Michael Lewis’ next book – the authors painted the opposite picture of a flywheel: artificial intelligence agents take workers’ jobs, people spend less, and struggling corporations make more layoffs.
There wasn’t much about it that hadn’t been heard or speculated about before. Technology leaders like Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei have already estimated this half of entry-level white-collar jobs will soon disappearand earlier this year, Anthropic released novel agent tools sale on Wall Street. Nevertheless, the report hit with the force of a blizzard blowing through lower Manhattan. When the closing bells sounded on the Up-to-date York Stock Exchange, the Dow fell 800 points. The name Alap Shah has already started ringing bells.
The achievement is less impressive than it seems. Wall Street, like the rest of us, is in a constant state of anxiety about artificial intelligence, and it doesn’t take much to trigger a mini-panic. Financial markets do not necessarily reflect reality, but fluctuations reflect broader concerns. The future of artificial intelligence is in William Gibson’s zone – it exists, but it’s unevenly distributed – and the news from those already living in the agent-filled AI code-writing universe is both thrilling and disturbing. Emphasis on disturbing.
Nobody – nobody! – does not know exactly how artificial intelligence will affect the economy, but it will certainly be significant. The stock is rising at the moment, so continuing the event seems to make sense. But then the latest doomsday manifesto or document comes along indicating that artificial intelligence could threaten the customary business sector, and suddenly money managers are reminded that the biggest problem of our time remains completely unsolved. Example: Earlier this month, a diminutive company (valued under $6 million) that previously sold karaoke machines switched to AI-powered shipping logistics and released a report saying it had discovered some efficiencies in trailer loading. That was enough wipe out billions of dollars from the stock prices of several enormous logistics companies, none of which had any experience with karaoke.
After doing its job on Wall Street, Citrini’s report came under massive fire. Critics boasted about each other, declaring his vanity. First, they pointed out that AI has had very little noticeable impact on the economy so far. Others cited a long history of resilience after technology shocks. AND mocking reply by respected trading firm Citadel Securities says: “For AI to cause a lasting negative demand shock, the economy must see a significant acceleration in adoption, experience near-total labor substitution, no fiscal response, negligible investment uptake, and unlimited scaling of computing power.”
The most devastating criticism questioned the report’s claim that much of the economy was based on unproductive “rent-seeking” by intermediaries and market makers taking advantage of the general public’s laziness. When everyone has dozens of AI agents working on their behalf, Shah writes, consumers will be able to effortlessly find the best goods at the best prices. Applications will become unnecessary – just enter what you want in LLM and an army of agents will do everything for you. The “poster child” for this phenomenon, Shah says, is DoorDash. Instead of being restricted to the restaurants available on the app, consumers will send AI agents to find the perfect meal options, striking deals directly with restaurants and suppliers – without the need for an app. Zero friction! The DoorDashes of the world are avocado toast!