The chances of the Trump family launching a full-fledged market forecasting product this year have just plummeted.
Last year, Trump Media and Technology Group announced Truth Predict, a partnership with cryptocurrency company Crypto.com. The initial announcement touted Truth Predict as a “new product” that would allow Truth Social users to trade on sports, inflation, elections and more through a “built-in” forecast market service. “For too long, global elites have tightly controlled these markets – with Truth Predict, we are democratizing information and empowering everyday Americans to tap into the wisdom of the crowd, turning free speech into actionable prediction,” then-CEO Devin Nunes said in an October 2025 report. press release.
At the time, the company detailed how Truth Social users would be able to convert the platform’s existing “truth gem” currency into Cronos cryptocurrency tokens and then “apply” them to Truth Predict transactions. Now Trump Media is shaping the project differently. In its latest public filing, the company indicated that the prediction market “remains in development,” but its offering will initially be confined to “marketing and promotional collaborations” with OG.com, a US-based prediction marketplace platform launched by Crypto.com in February 2026.
What exactly is “marketing and promotional cooperation”? It’s difficult to say because neither Trump Media nor Crypto.com responded to questions about the content of the contract. “We are encouraged by the progress we have made in developing Truth Predict in partnership with CDNA and look forward to bringing this exciting feature to Truth Social users,” Trump Media spokeswoman Shannon Devine told WIRED via email. (“CDNA” refers to Crypto.com’s affiliated U.S. regulated derivatives exchange and clearing house called Crypto.com | Derivatives North America. Can’t really talk about it.)
Prediction markets are a fast-growing and hotly competitive industry. Donald Trump Jr. has connections with several leading markets; he is paid advisor to Kalshi and investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm. President Donald Trump has made few public comments about prediction markets, though he told reporters in April that he “doesn’t like it conceptually” and that he’s “not happy with any of this stuff.”
Still, the Trump administration has largely taken a genial stance toward the industry through its top federal regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Biden-era CFTC banned Polymarket and even raided the home of its CEO Shayne Coplan; The CFTC discontinued the investigation under Trump. The Trump-era CFTC also insists it has exclusive jurisdiction over the industry and opposes attempts at state intervention, filing their own lawsuits against what CFTC Chairman Michael Selig calls “overzealous state regulators.” Selig is in a fierce dispute with state regulators over how the law should apply to these products; States such as Nevada, Wisconsin and Massachusetts are taking companies including Polymarket, Kalshi and Crypto.com to court, arguing that they must comply with state gambling laws.
One of the standout features of OG.com is that it was initially planned to allow participants to trade on margin, meaning people would be able to borrow funds to place trades rather than investing in all the financing themselves. Margin trading is an established practice in the financial derivatives world, but relatively modern in forecasting markets; This inherently carries an additional degree of risk because it allows investors to utilize money they do not have. (It’s unclear whether OG.com will implement this. When WIRED contacted the company to ask if margin trading was dynamic, it received an email back from the “OG team” stating that “margin trading is not a product offered.”)
The upshot is that in the near future, a Truth Social user will be able to switch between reading Trump’s all-caps posts and borrowing enormous sums of money to build a World Cup deal – but depending on how “marketing and promotional collaborations” are set up, they may not actually transact on the social network.