Kalshi’s best trader Usually Caleb Davies says down press about how prediction markets lend a hand him make money. An IT worker from Minneapolis estimates he made a total of $1.2 million on various forecasting platforms, including $414,000 in winnings from Kalshi Cultural Markets alone. He especially enjoys betting on the charts, as he carefully analyzes Spotify data to choose the winners. “Every morning I go into the study, download the data and update my predictions,” he tells WIRED.
But this summer he has become increasingly concerned about what he says is an obvious, bot-fueled attempt to manipulate Spotify-related markets. He recently began collecting and publishing evidence to support his theory, and eventually became so convinced that he contacted Spotify, Kalshi, and Polymarket with his concerns.
It turns out he was on to something. Spotify confirmed to WIRED that it investigated the suspected tampering cases reported by Davies and found evidence of artificial streaming. “All streaming services face constantly evolving manipulation of streams. Spotify has best-in-class practices in place to detect and mitigate manipulated streams, and we do not pay any royalties on this,” says spokeswoman Laura Batey. (However, the company did not provide any explanation for the manipulation, so Davies’ theory that it was directly related to a pattern of manipulation of prediction markets remains valid.)
Spotify eventually adjusted its charts to account for this discrepancy, with over 500,000 artificial streams, which caused Todd’s song to jump from number one to number four. However, this process did not happen immediately and Kalshi had already decided that the market would reward traders who chose Todd’s song.
“We are in contact with Spotify and are actively investigating this matter,” Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana tells WIRED. These talks actually led to more immediate changes: At the request of the Swedish streaming giant, Kalshi removed the Spotify logo from its company-affiliated marketplaces and adjusted language that initially suggested that Spotify had verified its chart results.
When Davies first contacted Kalshi with his concerns, the company’s head of enforcement Robert DeNault told the trader that only Spotify would be able to definitively confirm whether it had been attacked by a bot, and noted that the raise might not be suspicious. DeNault also theorized that Kalshi investors may simply be copying what other Polymarket players are doing.
“No one at Polymarket benefited from the fraud. This is what undermines Kalshi’s argument, because the company did not have Malcom Todd’s backer,” Davies tells WIRED.
Polymarket also debunks this theory. “It’s actually not likely because we didn’t even have Malcolm Todd as an option in the Spotify marketplace,” spokeswoman Annabel Walsh said. The company confirmed that it is looking into the broader streaming tampering situation, but has not identified any direct tampering so far.
No one has spoken to the people or group of people behind the streaming manipulation, so their motivations remain unclear. (Todd did not respond to requests for comment, but there is no indication that he is anything more than an innocent bystander.)