It’s been eight weeks since Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft was launched into orbit on an Atlas V rocket bound for the International Space Station. NASA officials said that two crew members, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, could return to Earth as early as June 14, just eight days later.
Yes, there were some issues during Starliner’s flight to the space station, including helium leaks and engine failures. But officials said they were relatively minor and tried to downplay them. “These are really minor issues that we have to deal with,” Mark Nappi, vice president and program manager for Boeing’s Commercial Crew Program, said during a news conference after the docking. “We’ll work them out before the next mission. I don’t consider them significant at all.”
But days turned into weeks, and weeks into months, as NASA and Boeing continued to investigate two technical issues. Of those, the more pressing concern was the failure of multiple reaction control system engines, which are crucial for steering Starliner away from the space station and triggering a critical engine burn for reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.
Over the past few weeks, NASA and Boeing ground teams have completed engine tests at a test site in White Sands, Up-to-date Mexico. Then last weekend, Boeing and NASA fired up the spacecraft’s engines in orbit to test their performance during docking with the space station. NASA said the preliminary results of those tests were helpful.
Dragon becomes a real option
A week ago, when NASA officials last spoke to the media, the agency’s commercial crew program manager, Steve Stich, would not discuss what would happen if NASA determined that Starliner’s engines were not reliable enough to allow a return to Earth.
“Our primary solution is to complete the mission” Stich said a week ago“There are many good reasons to complete this mission and bring Butch and Suni home aboard Starliner. Starliner was designed as a spacecraft so the crew could stay in the cockpit.”
For a long time it seemed almost certain that astronauts would return to Earth aboard the Starliner spacecraft.
But there’s been a lot of activity lately at NASA, Boeing, and SpaceX that suggests Wilmore and Williams could return home aboard a Crew Dragon spacecraft rather than a Starliner. Given the critical importance of that mission, Ars is sharing what we know Thursday afternoon.
One informed source said the odds of a crew return on Dragon are more like 50-50. Another source said it’s much more likely. To be clear, NASA hasn’t made a final decision. It probably won’t happen until at least next week. NASA deputy administrator Jim Free will likely make the decision.
Asked if it’s now more likely that the Starliner crew will return on Dragon, NASA spokesman Josh Finch told Ars on Thursday evening, “NASA is considering all options to return agency astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams from the International Space Station in the safest manner possible. No decisions have been made, and the agency will continue to provide updates on its plans.”
Putting the pieces together
Here are some figures that Ars can report with great confidence from multiple sources:
- NASA is still delaying the decision. The Flight Readiness Review meeting was scheduled for today, August 1, a few days earlier. But it was canceled. Instead, NASA released unclear blog update on Thursday, stating, “As Starliner return planning is completed, which is expected to last into next week, additional information on the agency’s preparations for the Return Readiness Review and subsequent press briefing will be shared.” So perhaps the meeting will take place next week.
- NASA released The reward for the task is $266,678 to SpaceX on July 14 for a “special emergency response study.” NASA said the study wasn’t directly related to the Starliner issues, but two sources told Ars that it actually was. While the study involved work on flying more than four Crew Dragon crew members home—scenario related to Frank Rubio and the leaks regarding Soyuz MS-22—it also allowed SpaceX to explore the possibility of flying Dragon home with six passengers, the indefinite crew in addition to Wilmore and Williams.
- SpaceX is actively working on a scenario in which two Or four astronauts will launch aboard Crew 9. (The normal crew is four people.) That mission has a nominal launch date of Aug. 18, but it could be delayed. SpaceX has already identified flight suits that would fit Wilmore and Williams, allowing them to return home on either the Crew-8 spacecraft (currently docked to the space station) or the Crew-9 vehicle. It’s unclear how the crews will be assigned to the two return Dragon flights. It’s possible that if four astronauts launch aboard Crew 9, five could return home on each of the two Dragons.
- Two sources told Ars that there have been heated discussions at meetings this week at NASA field facilities about whether to bring the crew home on the Starliner. Many groups are still “no” on Starliner as of Wednesday. It’s unclear how that will be resolved. Some engineers believe that if questions about Starliner arise, NASA should take the safe and sound route — Crew Dragon, which has safely launched 13 times and landed 12 times.
The most tough of connections
NASA officials face a tough decision. Because there are still at least a petite number of risks associated with flying the Starliner in its current state, the space agency and Boeing tested the engines as thoroughly as possible while the spacecraft was docked to the space station. Those tests were intended to “reduce” those risks. But while the data is good, it didn’t address all of NASA’s concerns.
So what will the space agency do? The Starliner could probably return to Earth safely. However, there seems to be some reasonable doubt that the Starliner will return safely. If NASA postpones its contingency plan, the Dragon flight, it could spell the end of the Starliner program. While the Starliner is being developed and tested, the company has already lost $1.6 billion. A crewed test flight, which would likely be necessary if Starliner returned autonomously, would cost significantly more. Boeing could decide to cancel Starliner, leaving NASA with only one provider for crew transportation. That would be painful for both NASA and Boeing.
But the alternative — Starliner not returning home safely with its crew inside — is far, far worse. That’s a risk-reward decision that Free, Stitch and other NASA officials must ultimately balance in the coming days.
This story originally appeared on Ars Technica.