Heated water provides hurricanes with the energy they need to grow and develop. Gusty winds evaporate a miniature amount of water from the sea surface. This heated water vapor rises to the clouds and releases heat, which fuels storms, which drive hurricane intensity.
The Atlantic Ocean has been in a fever for a year and a half. Sea surface temperatures on the other side of the ocean have been the highest on record almost the whole year 2023 AND continuation in 2024.
It’s not just that sea surface temperatures are historically high – that heat is also spreading hundreds of metres into the surface.
Scientists utilize ocean heat content (OHC) to measure ocean heat depth. A hurricane’s intense winds churn up the ocean and force cooler water from below to the surface, leaving cooler water behind in the storm’s wake.
Higher OHC values limit the amount of cooling left behind by the storm, which allows the ocean to more easily support higher storm temperatures later in the year.
OHC values in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are well above normal for this time of summer, and this situation is unlikely to change significantly as the peak season approaches.
It’s this potential energy that has meteorologists so concerned about the rest of the hurricane season. NOAA AND Colorado State University Both countries have released aggressive seasonal forecasts predicting up to 20 named tropical storms this year.
Experts knew the ocean would be able to withstand some terrifying storms this year. The only surprise is that Beryl formed so early. This early-season storm could be an omen for any storms that form later this year.
Courtesy of NOAA
Water temperatures are only part of the equation. A tropical cyclone is an extremely dainty structure that also requires forceful and organized thunderstorms, low wind shear, high atmospheric moisture, and few obstacles in its path to become a formidable beast.
Many of these components are also expected this hurricane season as forecasters watch for the potential for a La Niña to develop later this summer. La Niña patterns can make conditions more favorable for Atlantic storms by reducing wind shear in the region.
It’s not just the number of storms that could form this year that’s worrying experts, it’s the nature of them. Beryl just proved that any storm that takes root in the right environment can utilize those unusually heated waters to make a splash in the record books. Any of the many storms expected this season could have the potential to develop into a devastating hurricane, which requires extra attention and preparation.
People living along or near the coast should take advantage of the relative tranquil of early hurricane season to prepare for whatever they may encounter later this summer. Make sure you have emergency kit packed with supplies to cope with extended power outages. Plan what to do and where to go if your area is ordered to evacuate ahead of a storm.