“If you had to pick one reason [crypto prediction markets] will be able to return to the US, you have to point to the Trump administration,” says Zach Hamilton, founder of the crypto startup Sarcophagus, in an interview for WIRED. “Donald Trump. I mean, that’s it.
Even before Truth Predict came along, the Trump family had a financial interest in spreading prediction markets across the US.
In January, Donald Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as strategic advisor. Then Polymarket in August received the investment from 1789 Capital, the venture capital firm where Trump Jr. is a partner. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. joined the Polymarket advisory board.
The ties between the Trump family and Polymarket, forged as Polymarket sought to re-enter the United States, have drawn attention from critics who say the investment could pose a conflict of interest. They argue that the deal gives the Trump family a chance to benefit from policy changes initiated by the Trump administration.
“Nobody is saying that members of the president’s family can’t engage in normal capitalist activities in a capitalist country,” says Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project, an organization that aims to police the behavior of elected officials. “But Polymarket is the subject of heated political controversy. As such, the investment reflects a significant conflict of interest that can be avoided.”
“Neither the president nor his family has ever engaged in or will engage in a conflict of interest,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement to WIRED.
Polymarket, TMTG and 1789 Capital did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Truth Predict launch also outlines a scenario in which different aspects of the Trump family’s business empire could compete successfully with each other.
“From a venture capital standpoint, many of us don’t like investing in competing projects. We try to avoid it,” says Chris Perkins, managing partner at Crypto VC CoinFund. “We’re trying to pick category winners.”
Already, companies linked to the Trump family operate competing bitcoin vaults. In June, a dispute erupted over which corporate entities could launch an “official” Trump-branded cryptocurrency wallet.