And then the main dilemma: who should take responsibility for what? The so-called global south is pushing money to follow a path from developed countries to those left behind that have played no historic role in the climate crisis. On the other hand, the industrialized world is demanding decarbonization commitments from developing countries, in part to protect industrial and technological competitiveness.
Complicating matters is the position of China, which is responsible for a third of global emissions, more than any other country. Despite this, the UN still considers the country to be on a development path, meaning it is not formally bound by the same economic obligations as the world’s historically biggest polluters. However, Beijing may decide to make bold commitments to enhance its international prestige.
Who’s there – and who’s missing?
Delegations from nearly 200 countries arrived in Baku. Among the first to arrive after last week’s trip was an American.
However, outgoing US President Joe Biden is not expected to attend the summit. Also absent is Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, who is busy creating the up-to-date EC at the beginning of December; she is replaced by the European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, who enjoys a reputation as an excellent diplomat. Brussels’ negotiating position has been influenced by the consequences of the tragic flooding in Valencia, Spain, in recent weeks, signaling the need for more resources to adapt to climate change.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be absent, embroiled in a government crisis. A similar thing will happen to French President Emmanuel Macron in connection with disagreements with Baku regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involving Azerbaijan and Armenia. Along with this, most French NGOs will not participate.
Also remaining at home are Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will send a up-to-date climate envoy, Liu Zhenmin; Russian President Vladimir Putin; and Brazilian President Lula, who is replaced by Environment Minister Marina Silva. The leaders of Japan, Australia (another major polluter) and Mexico will also not be there.
The wave is caused by the decision of Papua Up-to-date Guinea – one of the countries most affected by climate change – to boycott COP29. “All the big emitters around the world are pledging millions of dollars to help fight climate change,” said PNG Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko. “But I can already say that everything will then be passed on to consultants who will ask the countries concerned not to overdo it.”
What impact will the US elections have?
The elephant in the room is Donald Trump’s recent victory. Already in 2016, Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Agreement, which set the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; Joe Biden then rejoined the climate agreement immediately after arriving at the White House.
The problem is that Trump’s intentions remain complex to interpret. Trump has signaled a desire to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, as well as to leave the UN convention that oversees the COP, “which would mean that Washington would not even be at the negotiating tables as an observer,” says Jacopo Bencini, a researcher at the Carbon Markets Hub at the European University Institute in Florence.