Saturday, March 14, 2026

As the supercomputer evolves, according to Jacek Dongarry

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Quantum calculation is intriguing. This is a really great research area, but I have the impression that we have a long way. Today we have examples of quantum computers – the software always arrives in front of the software – but these examples are very primitive. Thanks to the digital computer, we think about making calculations and answering. Instead, a quantum computer will give us a probability distribution, where there is an answer, and you will do a number, we will call it action on a quantum computer, and will give you a number of potential solutions to the problem, but it will not give you an answer. So it will be different.

Did we catch ourselves at the time of buzzing at the time of bucking?

I think that unfortunately it has been sold out – there is too much noise associated with quantum. The result of this is usually that people will get excited about it, and then they do not fulfill any promises, and then excitement will collapse.

We saw it earlier: AI went through this cycle and recovered. And now AI is a real thing. People operate it, it is productive and will serve us all in a very significant way. I think that Quantum must go through this winter, where people will be discouraged by it, ignore it, and then there will be some shrewd people who come up with how to operate it and how to do it to make it more competitive with time-honored things.

There are many problems to be mentioned. Quantum computers are very basic to disrupt. They will have many “mistakes” – they will fall apart because of the nature of how brittle the calculations are. Until we do things more resistant to these failures, it will not perform a completely task that we hope that he can do it. I don’t think we’ll ever have a laptop that is a quantum laptop. I can be wrong, but I certainly don’t think it happened for my life.

Quantum computers also need quantum algorithms, and today we have very few algorithms that can be effectively started on a quantum computer. Thus, quantum calculation is in its infancy and together with the infrastructure that will operate a quantum computer. Thus, quantum algorithms, quantum software, techniques that we have are all very primitive.

When can we expect – if ever – a transition from time-honored to quantum systems?

So today we have many supercomputer centers around the world and have very powerful computers. These are digital computers. Sometimes the digital computer is increased by something that will enhance performance – the accelerator. Today, these accelerators are GPU, graphics processing units. GPU is doing something very well and just does it well, it has been archived. In the senior days it was vital for graphics; Today we are re -invading so that we can operate GPU to meet some of the calculation needs.

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