Throughout the region related objects for water and electricity– including desalination plants – have been damaged or put at risk as Iranian attacks go beyond time-honored targets.
However, it is unlikely that a single strike would cut off the flow of water to the bay. The system is designed to absorb isolated disruptions, but continuous or multi-site attacks would begin to strain supplies much more quickly.
“In the Gulf, desalination provides ample breathing space, so the loss of one plant is not immediately visible in the tap,” says Rabee Rustum, professor of water and environmental engineering at Heriot-Watt University in Dubai.
Iranian drone attacks in Kuwait damaged two power plants and a desalination plant facilities and started fires in two oil plants. Other places, including Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, were considered potentially exposed.
“Hitting desalination plants would be a strategic move, but it would also put us very close to the red line, and in some cases beyond it,” says Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.
Water infrastructure, Krieg explains, is a separate category. “Water infrastructure is not just another tool. In places dependent on desalination, it is the basis for civilian survival, public health, hospital operations, sanitation and basic state legitimacy.”
Krieg notes that international humanitarian law provides special protection for civilian objects and facilities necessary for the survival of the civilian population. “And that is why attacks on water systems carry such serious legal and moral weight,” Krieg adds.
These incidents highlight a structural reality: desalination is critical to the Bay’s water supply, and disruptions have immediate consequences for everyday life.
How the system absorbs interference
At first glance, desalination seems risk-prone. Close the factory and supply will be reduced. In practice, the system is designed with layers of redundancy.
The plants operate in multiple locations, which allows for redistribution of production in the event of a slowdown in the operation of one of the facilities. Water is also stored at various points in the network, including central reservoirs and building-level reservoirs, creating a buffer to delay disruptions.
According to a statement to WIRED Middle East by Veolia, an environmental services provider whose technologies account for almost 19 percent of the region’s desalination capacity, “the region’s water supply is diversified thanks to a network of numerous facilities located along the coast.”
The company adds that the distribution systems are interconnected, allowing the plants to “support and replace each other when necessary,” helping to maintain service continuity.
In the UAE, storage capacity usually lasts about a week, while in other parts of the region it may be circumscribed to two to three days, Veolia says.
In practice, this means that the system can absorb disturbances for a circumscribed time. Once supplies are depleted, water supply depends on plants being able to continue producing enough water to meet demand.
Water generating system
Unlike most regions, the Bay Area does not depend on rivers or rainfall. It depends on a network of desalination plants along the coast that continuously convert seawater into drinking water.
Seawater is taken to treatment plants, filtered and processed either through reverse osmosis – forcing it through membranes to remove salts and contaminants – or through thermal methods that evaporate and condense the water. The resulting supply is distributed through pipelines, stored in tanks and delivered to homes, hospitals and industrial plants.
This is not a versatile system. It was designed to operate continuously and produce water on the scale necessary to sustain cities, industrial activities and crucial services. Gulf states produce about 40 percent desalinated water in the worldwith over 400 plants throughout the region.
Dependency varies from country to country, but is high everywhere. In the United Arab Emirates, desalination accounts for 41–42% of the total water supply, in Kuwait it accounts for approximately 90% of drinking water, and in Saudi Arabia it accounts for approximately 70%.
When disruptions become observable
Residents would not feel the disruption immediately – the water would still flow.
Rustum explains that the buildings are equipped with internal storage and pumping systems, which means early changes in supply may not be observable. In many cases, water pressure remains stable even after the broader system adjusts.