We live in an era of uncertainty. Not only because of global threats to societies, but many people, especially younger generations, are facing unprecedented uncertainty on a personal level. None of us knows what’s going to happen, but we might as well face it. And this is the first lesson in prediction: Don’t make predictions. This means you shouldn’t just guess what will happen. Instead, Embrace uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity. Here’s how:
Think quick and tardy about uncertainty
Uncertainty is “the conscious awareness of not knowing.” It is a personal relationship with all that we do not know – we may have no idea what is happening right now or what will happen in the future. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman has identified two broad ways of thinking; by using our quick, unconscious, instinctive reactions or by slowly and deliberately moving through the problem. It’s usually good to think quickly about the future: when we’re driving a car or choosing a movie to watch. But when it comes to critical decisions, it’s better to just take your time.
Conjuring up possible futures
The first step to slowly thinking about the future is to visualize possible developments. Organizations can create scenarios that reflect sanguine and despondent outcomes and can employ “red teaming” to think intentionally about what could go wrong. The UK Ministry of Defense even employs science fiction writers to bring some sedate imagination to possible futures.
As an individual, you may adopt a “red team mindset,” in which you consciously criticize our standard view, whether you are the type of person who tends to look on the glowing side or expects the worst.
The problem with using words alone to describe uncertainty
Vague language about uncertainty can be easily misinterpreted. It’s basic to say that something “could” or “might” happen, or even that it’s “likely.” But what do these words actually mean? In 1961, the CIA planned a Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba to overthrow Fidel Castro’s revolutionary government, but the Joint Chiefs of Staff judged the chance of success to be only 30 percent, or a 70 percent chance of failure.
This was reported as a “fair” chance, which they believed would be interpreted as “not very good.” But President Kennedy read these words optimistically and approved the invasion, which ended in complete failure and pushed Cuba even further into Soviet influence.
Numbers for our ignorance
Events such as the Bay of Pigs disaster encouraged intelligence agencies to match words with approximate numbers. For example, if someone in British intelligence says the event is “likely” this has an official interpretation of a 55 to 75 percent probability. A similar scale is used in climate science, where a “Maybe” event means 90 to 95 percent.
As individuals, we can try to rank possible futures in terms of their probability, and then give approximate numbers, say that getting a particular job is a “2 in 10” event. With a little imagination, we could imagine all our possible future trajectories shooting out like spaghetti; and about 20 percent of them will get you a job.
What distinguishes a good forecaster?
“Super forecasters” can estimate high probabilities of the future, where “good” means that (a) they are “calibrated”, so when they say “70 percent chance”, these events will happen about 70 percent of the time, and (b) they are “discriminatory” and therefore assigns a high probability to events that occur. They are usually open to new knowledge and willing to work in teams, have insight into their own thinking and all their biases, and have the humility to admit uncertainty, admit mistakes and change their minds. They are similar Isaiah Berlin so-called “foxes”, willing to adapt to new evidence, not “hedgehogs”, stuck in one way of thinking.
Recognizing the unknown
Donald Rumsfeld immortally described “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns” – things that were beyond our imagination and we didn’t even think about them. When we see this possibility, it’s called “deep uncertainty” when we can’t even name possible futures, even with a red team mindset. However, Rumsfeld did not account for “unknown knowns” – assumptions we make without thinking. These can be the most dangerous delusions and that’s why we need critical friends to help us get out of our fixed tram lines.
Ready to be surprised
In 1650, Oliver Cromwell’s army was camped outside Edinburgh and he tried to persuade the Scottish Kirk to withdraw its support for the return of Charles II. Cromwell wrote: “Is then everything you say infallibly in accordance with the Word of God? I beg you, in the depths of Christ, consider the possibility that you may be wrong.” This appeal was ignored, and Cromwell soundly defeated the Scots at the Battle of Dunbar.
“Cromwell’s Rule” means you should think like a fox and always have the humility to believe that you might be wrong. Given the low probability of being wrong, you can quickly adapt to recent, surprising information.
The role of luck
Things can go well or badly, mainly because of factors beyond your control, such as luck. Philosophers have identified three main types. Constitutive happiness: who you were born, your time and place in history, your parents, your genes, your innate characteristics and early upbringing. This is extremely important – you need to make the most of the hand you were given at birth. Random luck: being in the right place at the right time or in the wrong place at the wrong time. Resultant Happiness: How things are going for you right now.
But not everything is out of your control – “elated” people seize opportunities, have positive expectations, and are resilient when things go wrong.
Living with uncertainty
Uncertainty is part of being human, and few of us want to know what we’ll get for Christmas, what the score of a taped football match will be, or even whether it’s possible when we’ll die. Uncertainty is inevitable, and we may respond to this awareness of ignorance in different ways – we may feel anxious or excited, hopeful or fearful, depending on the circumstances and our personal tolerance for ignorance.
We cannot avoid uncertainty. But with a little tardy thinking, we may be able to accept it, humble ourselves, and even enjoy it.