When Chinese space officials unveiled the design of the country’s first super-heavy-lift rocket nearly a decade ago, it looked like a fairly conventional booster. The rocket was completely redundant, with three stages and solid engines attached to the sides.
Since then, China has been reviewing the design of the rocket, dubbed the Long March 9, in response to SpaceX’s development of reusable rockets. As of two years agoin China, the design was recalibrated to have a reusable first stage.
Now, based on information revealed at the Zhuhai Major Air Show, the design has changed again. And this time, the plan for the Długi March 9 rocket looks almost exactly like a clone of SpaceX’s Starship rocket.
This looks familiar
According to the latest specifications, the Długi March 9 rocket will have a fully reusable first stage, powered by 30 YF-215 engines, which are full-flow, staged-combustion internal combustion engines fueled by methane and liquid oxygen, each with a thrust of approximately 200 tons . For comparison, Starship’s first stage is powered by 33 Raptor engines, also powered by methane and liquid oxygen, each with a thrust of approximately 280 tons.
The up-to-date specifications also include a fully reusable rocket configuration, with an upper stage that looks eerily similar to Starship’s second stage, complete with flaps in a similar location. According to the presentation given at the air show, China intends to fly this vehicle for the first time in 2033, i.e. in almost ten years.
In related news last week, quasi-private Chinese space startup Cosmoleap announced plans development of a fully reusable “Leap” rocket over the next few years. An animated video accompanying the funding announcement indicated that the company was trying to emulate the chopstick tower grabbing methodology that SpaceX successfully used during its fifth Starship flight test last month.
Let’s be real for a moment. This is not the first time that China’s rocket programs have imitated SpaceX, as when it planned to develop Space Pioneer Falcon 9 clone. Both the state launch agency and the company’s private industry are copying SpaceX’s best practices in an attempt to catch up. At this point, China’s launch industry is basically hanging out in SpaceX’s waiting room to see which ideas it should pursue next.
The real race is starting to unfold
Of course, it is nothing up-to-date that Chinese industry seeks to copy – and in some cases steal – ideas from Western competitors. To its credit, China’s space industry realizes that the future of spaceflight is fully reusable, and even its state-owned enterprises are preparing to achieve this outcome.
On the other hand, US policymakers seem determined to force NASA to continue building the ultra-expensive and expendable Space Launch System rocket for decades. This consumes NASA’s budget that could otherwise be devoted to technological advances that will put the U.S. civilian space program ahead of China.
NASA and China’s space agencies are currently embroiled in a second space race, with both countries forming international coalitions to explore the lunar south pole region and eventually establish settlements there. Because the area near the South Pole (especially near craters where water ice is likely to exist) is relatively circumscribed, winning this race really matters for long-term space ambitions.
China intends to operate a more conventional rocket, the Long March 10 vehicle, on its first lunar missions. These initial sorties will last only a few days. The country is counting on a much more powerful and reusable Long March 9 to support more reliable lunar operations.
So if the ultimate goal is to develop lunar settlements, the real winner will not be the country or space agency that first sends astronauts to the surface. It is the first country to develop a fully reusable super-heavy rocket and to fund a program to exploit this revolutionary capability. The United States currently has an advantage in this race, given that Starship flies.
But the race is by no means won yet, and the latest design of the Long March 9 indicates that China knows where the finish line lies.
This story originally appeared on Ars Technica.