Remember everything social media posts from a few months ago showing the aurora borealis in all its glory in unexpectedly southern locations? Well, get ready to potentially see them again, or for the first time: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) is predicting the delicate shows will appear again in unusual locations this week, starting Tuesday.
In the coming days, the aurora borealis is expected to be observable across the northern and upper Midwest states of the US, northern Britain and northern parts of Europe. British Met Office predicts A “strong geomagnetic storm” is heading towards Earth.
NOAA predicts that for the United States, the aurora borealis from Tuesday night into the early morning hours of Wednesday will have a Kp index of five — a nine-point scale measuring the perturbation of Earth’s magnetic field, with nine being the strongest. This means the auroras will appear farther south of the poles than usual and will be observable to observers in the northern United States, stretching from Maine to Washington.
In Europe, the UK Met Office predicted “the highest probability of severe geomagnetic storm conditions (G3) on Wednesday 24 July.” The weather service said in a statement space weather forecast July 23 “could result in aurora displays as far south as Northern Ireland, northern England and similar geomagnetic latitudes, although hampered by a near full moon and limited periods of darkness.” In the southern hemisphere, the Met Office is predicting “aurora displays over Tasmania and southern parts of New Zealand.”
SpaceWeatherLive, a Belgian non-profit organization that tracks auroral and solar activity, is predicting that a geomagnetic storm approaching the Northern Hemisphere will reach a Kp index level of 6 this week and expects the storm to peak between Wednesday and Thursday.
This does not quite correspond to the strength of the geomagnetic storms of May 10. All three British geomagnetic observatories recorded the May storm as having Index level Kp 9highest possible rating. Because storms are predicted to be weaker this week, we probably won’t see the aurora borealis as prominent as we did then, and it’s likely they won’t extend as far from Earth’s poles. In May, the aurora borealis extended as far as continental Europe and the southern United States.
In recent months, there has been increased solar activity as the Sun approaches peak its 11-year solar cycle. As we approach solar maximum, which is expected to occur between behind schedule 2024 and early 2026, we should expect more repeated auroras and lower-than-normal latitudes, NOAA predicts.
This all happened after NASA captured the largest solar flare in the past seven years in December. The flare caused NOAA issue warnings about possible minor fluctuations in the power grid and disruptions to radio services and spacecraft. The administration is watching the sunspot areas for possible bursts of solar material, or “coronal mass ejections,” that could be aimed at Earth and cause these colorful delicate shows at higher latitudes. In this upcoming case, it’s an explosion of solar material that occurred on Sunday, which could cause us to see the aurora borealis from Tuesday through Thursday.
If you want to have the best chance of seeing the Northern Lights this week, wherever you are, try to choose a location with the least amount of delicate pollution and check the weather for cloud cover – the best thing is to have a sky that is as gloomy and clear as possible. Also, try to take pictures with your phone’s camera, as this often gives a better view than the naked eye.