The world could face the strongest El Niño since records began, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events and significant long-term economic impacts around the world.
Novel analysis by Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather paints a disturbing picture of a climate phenomenon unfolding in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently predicted that this year’s El Niño – characterized by hotter-than-usual waters in the eastern tropical Pacific – could be one of the strongest on record. Hausfather analysis the utilize of an El Niño forecast based on 14 climate models through July indicates that “this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began, but may turn out to be the strongest by a truly stunning margin.”
Climate scientists measure the strength of El Niño by observing temperatures in the Pacific region known as Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central ocean basin. The fresh analysis is based on 667 simulations and compares them to historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also distinguishes El Niño intensity from background warming caused by fossil fuels, making it easier to make comparisons between super El Niños.
The model average shows temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal. This number would exceed the previous record set during the 2015-2016 El Niño episode by about 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s infrequent for records to fall by such a wide spread.
“For context, the gap between the strongest and the strongest fifth the strongest El Niño in the last 150 years has a temperature of only about 0.5°C. The models predict something beyond anything we have ever observed,” writes Hausfather.
Of course, what happens in the tropical Pacific does not stay in the tropical Pacific. El Niño changes the atmosphere, changing weather conditions around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more intense its impacts (usually).
Record ocean heat in the Pacific, combined with warming from greenhouse gas emissions, could push global temperatures to a new record. However, the extra heat released by El Niño will take some time to filter through the vast climate system, which means next year we will see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heatwave on average global temperatures. According to his forecasts, the global temperature in 2027 may reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, which is well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold defined as a relatively safe level of global warming.
But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. Separate analysis by Carbon Brief shows that the chances are increasing for 2026 will set an annual heat record, with the probability increasing from 19 percent in April to 35 percent in July. Forecasters expect El Niño-related extreme weather conditions to affect various parts of the globe in the coming months. In fact, some effects are already noticeable: catches are down in eastern Pacific fisheries, and the Peruvian government imposed a ban on anchovy fishing this spring.
Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that this phenomenon is developing faster than usual. The comparison shows that this year’s El Niño is intensifying faster than the 1997–1998 event, another super El Niño. It’s also very different from the 2015 event, which began when the ocean was already showing signs of early warming – in other words, it got off to a brisk start. This is especially striking because this year started with La Niña, El Niño’s cooler-than-usual cousin, so it had some work to do before it even got started.