Sylvie Andrews and her partner not only lost the novel home they helped build when the Eaton Fire rocked Altadena, California, in January 2025. They also lost the decade-long sacrifices they made to put down roots in their hometown and the community they created. “We put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into this,” Andrews said. “That’s what we lost in the fire.”
This fire, along with the Palisades Fire to the west, destroyed over 16,000 structures killed 31 people. But while Andrews and thousands of Angelenos rushed to evacuate, other people saw a financial opportunity. Using Polymarket, the world’s largest forecast marketplace, they placed bets on the fires – how they would develop, how long they would last and how much they would destroy.
Prediction markets are essentially gambling sites where people place bets on the outcome of events, including elections, sports, weather, and more. Everything is fair game, from oil prices and the spread of infectious diseases to international incidents. Markets typically formulate questions as “yes” or “no” and the price of a “contract” ranges from $0 to $1. A price of 50 cents for a “yes” contract means that bettors collectively believe that a given event has a 50% chance of occurring. Market hosts make money by charging a fee on bets.
In January 2025, Polymarket was listed on the stock exchange almost 20 questions, created by the platform’s “marketing team” in connection with the wildfires burning in Southern California. How How many acres will the Palisades fire have burned by Friday, three days after it ignited on Tuesday? Will be Will the Palisades fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When Will the Palisades fire be 50 percent contained? Will be Will the Palisades and Eaton fires be contained before February?
People used $1.2 million betting on these queries, According to to Aeon warehouse. “Wow,” Andrews said repeatedly when she learned the number. “My first opinion is that it is morally reprehensible,” she said. “The fact that anyone would feel good doing something like that amazes me.”
“Forecast markets are just the wild, wild West,” said Susan Sherman, who grew up in Pacific Palisades. She lost her childhood home in the Palisades fire; her overdue parents had owned it since 1963, and now it was gone. A few months ago she sold an empty plot of land. “I think (betting on fires) I’m just very dumb and heartless.”
As prediction markets boom and a novel wildfire season begins, wildfire survivors and ethicists say the plants encourage and reward callous thinking and risky behavior.
One of the main problems arising from fire forecast markets is arson. “That’s what upsets me,” Sherman said. In theory, placing a bet could give someone a perverse incentive to start a fire or facilitate you grow. Unlike other disasters such as hurricanes, floods or extreme heat, a fire can be brought under control by just one person in a matter of minutes. “Systems that tie financial gains to wildfire impacts may encourage abuse, including arson, and are inconsistent with our mission,” a U.S. Forest Service spokesman said.
“Imagine what a bad actor could do,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. “I believe that a market that could support this type of activity is a dangerous market.” Firefighters or land managers with exclusive information about the fire’s progress or fire agencies’ plans could even be tempted to bet on the fire, which would be considered insider trading.