As the United States enters a particularly contentious midterm election season, prediction markets have already run into trouble with the political commentators they pay to promote their platforms. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have asked influencers to remove “paid partnership” tags from social media posts questioning the results of the Los Angeles mayoral election, the platforms confirmed to WIRED.
As conservative former reality star Spencer Pratt fell to third place behind incumbent Karen Bass and City Councilor Nithya Raman, several popular right-wing creators published posts casting doubt on the race. In one post, a MAGA influencer known as Gunther Eagleman, who has more than 1.7 million followers, suggested that Pratt’s opponents were “stealing” the election. Kalshi asked the creators to delete the posts last Friday, as Semaphore first reported.
The company does not publicly disclose its agreements with paid affiliates, but Kalshi’s policies expressly prohibit affiliates from questioning the fairness or accuracy of official election results or legal rulings made in connection with the election. “These are internal policies to guide our affiliates and partners and include standards for the promotion and marketing of Kalshi Markets during elections,” spokesperson Dani Lever told WIRED.
Meanwhile, Polymarket asked two creators to remove paid partnership tags from posts critical of the election results, including a post by right-wing influencer Benny Johnson suggesting that the reason Raman’s chances at Polymarket rose was because “the public has so little faith in the California election that they simply assume Democrats are going to radically rig it.” Johnson’s post was marked as paid content from June 4 to June 8, when the partnership tag was removed.
Johnson did not respond to requests for comment. He has not posted any fresh Polymarket-affiliated content since the removal.
“Our existing marketing guidelines expressly prohibit affiliates from providing misleading or false information, and we will continue to monitor and ensure compliance with our paid vendors,” Olivia Chalos, Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer, told WIRED in a statement.
Polymarket declined to share the language it uses in its affiliate agreements, although the company confirmed its guidelines prohibit false and misleading statements. As first reported today by the Popular News newsletter, other posts marked as paid partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi that promote election-denying narratives remain online, showing how enforcing their guidelines has become a game of whack-a-mole for prediction market companies. (Polymarket is looking into additional accounts that violated its policies, WIRED says.)
Last week “Polityka”. reported that Polymarket’s chief marketing officer, Matthew Modabber, pays content creators directly through PayPal, which is an unconventional solution. It is unclear whether Modabber paid Johnson or right-wing commentator Kangmin Lee, whose post was also deleted, for these specific partnerships. Polymarket declined to comment on the payment method.
Kalshi and Polymarket offer a wide range of political and electoral markets, and forecast-based odds are increasingly included in media coverage of elections. (CNN, for example, included a formal partnership from Kalshi delayed last year). However, both platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators. Many government officials believe these startups should be regulated like gambling platforms rather than commodity exchanges, and dozens of ongoing lawsuits aim to force them to comply with state gambling laws. There are also mutual concerns about how these markets may encourage and facilitate insider trading and market manipulation.
This latest incident raises another alarm: these companies have become entangled with influential people who support election denial. The chances that this is a one-off and that the army of inflammatory commentators will otherwise make perfect judgments about what counts as appropriate paid promotional material look slim.