Hurricane season in the Atlantic It’s almost here and the first signs are that it may be less busy than usual. But that’s no reason to delete the weather app and ignore the forecast.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts eight to 14 named tropical systems will form, three to six of which will become hurricanes and one to three of which will become Category 3 or higher.
“What underlies this forecast is largely the El Niño phenomenon,” said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.
El Niño, characterized by a tongue of sizzling water stretching across the Pacific, is likely to occur this summer. This stretch of sultry ocean changes weather patterns around the world. In the tropical Atlantic, El Niño creates winds that make it tough for hurricanes to rise. Those that do can sometimes be torn apart by what is happening in the upper atmosphere. (The opposite is true in the Pacific and NOAA predicts a very busy season in this ocean basin).
During the three previous Super El Niños, cumulative cyclone energy – a metric that influences the strength and longevity of storms – was well below normal.
That said, El Niño, even an extremely mighty one, is just one of many factors that influence hurricane season. High local ocean temperatures can encourage storms to form and intensify, and the Atlantic is currently warmer than usual.
At the same time, Saharan dust may clog the atmosphere and hinder the formation of storms. It is also very tough to predict when its plumes will appear. That’s what happened last year, when a below-average number of named storms formed despite an busy forecast. Despite lower-than-expected activity, Hurricane Melissa, one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the Atlantic basin, still occurred last year.
This means that the seasonal forecast provides a handy guide to what to expect, and federal and state agencies are great for pre-determining supplies and resources. But what ultimately matters is what happens to individual storms.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s important to understand that it will only take one day,” Jacobs said, noting that even in composed years, Category 5 storms still make landfall.
The Trump administration has cut staffing at NOAA and restricted the collection of some data, such as weather balloons, that could impact forecasts. Jacobs touted the value of fresh observations, including aerial drones that will be deployed operationally for the first time.
NOAA has also increased its employ of artificial intelligence weather models trained on historical data. During the 2025 hurricane season, the agency conducted tests experimental hurricane model developed using Google DeepMind. Overdue last year, it also introduced a set of AI-based weather models for employ in operational forecasting, in addition to conventional weather models that employ weather forecasting equations.
Agency says that the AI version of its flagship model provides better predictions of the tracks of tropical cyclones – the general name for hurricanes – although it lags behind conventional weather models in predicting their intensity.