In the second one month of the US-Iranian war, the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to intensify – the number of airstrikes increases, the reaction of oil markets and growing pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond the immediate security and economic concerns, another question is quietly taking shape: What actually happens if a nuclear facility is hit?
In most cases, even if a nuclear facility is hit, a large-scale radiological disaster is unlikely. Current facilities are equipped with many safety systems that can shut down reactors and prevent damage.
Risk is not defined by the strike itself, but by what damage the strike causes inside the facility. However, the risk becomes much higher if these systems fail or if it has a direct impact on an operating nuclear power plant.
Where the risk begins
On February 28, when the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile sites were flagged as potential targets. As the conflict deepens, Iranian officials say strikes at the Natanz nuclear facility, a primary uranium enrichment elaborate located about 240 miles from Tehran.
Then there were strikes on the street Ardakan facility but also Khondab heavy water reactor, which was unusable after the attack. Additional massive bunker-busting bombs also appeared earlier this week fired in Isfahan, near the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.
So far, international regulators have not reported any radiation leaks from the targeted facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said so is not an indication off-site contamination, even after reported strikes in places such as Natanz and near Isfahan.
But concerns are not narrow to the point of impact.
On the other side of the Gulf, risk is shaped by geography and infrastructure. Much of the region depends on desalinated seawater – systems that draw it directly from the sea. If radioactive material entered the marine environment, it would spread not only through ecosystems but also through infrastructure that supplies drinking water to millions of people.
The Bushehr nuclear power plant, located along the Persian Gulf coast, is close to neighboring countries. While not directly affected, experts have repeatedly warned that any escalation regarding offshore nuclear infrastructure could have cross-border consequences.
What will happen next
Not every impact on a nuclear facility results in a dramatic mushroom cloud explosion or immediate release of radiation. What matters is the location of the impact on the object and the degree of damage to the safety systems.
Within minutes of impact, the reactor is designed to shut down automatically. This stops the nuclear reaction, providing the first line of defense. But the exemption doesn’t eliminate the risk.
The reactor core continues to generate heat radioactive decay, and that heat must be controlled. The extent of damage – whether to buildings, control systems or backup infrastructure – determines how effectively these security mechanisms may still function.
In previous incidents, including Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan, the shutdown worked as expected. The crisis began only after the tsunami damaged critical systems in the following hours.