Economists in Stanford The university has found the strongest evidence that artificial intelligence begins to eliminate some jobs. But history is not so straightforward: while younger employees are replaced by artificial intelligence in some industries, more experienced employees appear novel opportunities.
Erik Brynjolfsson, professor at the Stanford University, Ruyu Chen, scientist and Bharat Chandar, post -graduate student, examined the data from ADP, the largest pay provider in the USA, from the end of 2022, when Chatgpt debuted, until mid -2012.
Scientists He discovered some strong signals In data – in particular that the adoption of generative artificial intelligence coincided with a decrease in employment opportunities for younger employees in the sectors Previously identified as particularly susceptible to AI driving automation (Think about customer service and software creation). In these industries they found a 16 % decrease in employment for employees aged 22 to 25.
The novel study reveals the refined picture of the influence of AI on work. While artificial intelligence achievements were often accompanied by tragic forecasts about eliminated work – there were not many data to support it. For example, relative unemployment for juvenile graduates began to fall around 2009, long before the current AI wave. And areas that may seem exposed to artificial intelligence, such as translation, have actually noticed jobs in recent years.
“It is always tough to know [what’s happening] If you only look at a specific company or hear anecdotes, “says Brynjolfsson.” So we wanted to look at it much more systematically. “
By combing the wage data, Stanford team stated that the influence of AI has more to do with the employee’s experience and knowledge than the type of work. More experienced employees in the industries in which generative AI are accepted, were isolated from the resettlement of work, with the possibilities of remaining flat or slightly growing. The discovery creates backups, which some programmers have previously told me about the influence of AI on their industry – namely that Rote, a repetitive work, such as writing code in order to connect to the API interface, has become easier to automate. Stanford’s study also indicates that artificial intelligence eliminates jobs, but does not reduce wages, at least so far.
Scientists considered potentially misleading factors, including Covid pandemic, increase in remote work and the last release of the technology sector. They discovered that AI has an impact, even taking into account these factors.
Brynjolfsson claims that the study offers a lesson on how to maximize the benefits of artificial intelligence throughout the economy. He has long suggested that the government can change the tax system so as not to reward companies replacing the working force with automation. He also suggests that AI companies are developing systems that prioritize human cooperation.
Brynjolfsson and another scientist Stanford, Andrew Haupt, argued in the newspaper in June AI companies should develop new references of “Centaur” AI These measure the cooperation of man-ai to encourage greater focus on enlargement than automation. “I think there are still many tasks in which people and machines can surpass [AI on its own]- says Brynjolfsson.
Some experts believe that greater cooperation between people and AI can be a feature of the future labor market. Matt Beane, an associate professor at UC Santa Barbara, who studies AI automation, says that he expects that AI boom will cause the demand for work related to enlargement-and managing the production of production AI is becoming more and more vital. “We automate as much as possible,” says Beane. “But this does not mean that there will be no growing mountain in work in the field of expansion.”
Ai is growing quickly, and Brynjolfsson warns that influence on younger employees can spread to people with more experience. “We must create an early dashboard system to help us follow it in real time,” he says. “This is a very consistent technology.”
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