A lot depends on next week’s WWDC 2024 keynote. The stakes of the presentation are much higher than standard post-event market movements. The pressure on Tim Cook and crew to deliver is, in a very real sense, even greater than before last year’s Vision Pro announcement.
On Monday, Apple will present its plans for artificial intelligence. The topic has been a huge question mark in Cupertino over the past few years as competitors such as Google and Microsoft have begun to implement generative artificial intelligence. There is broad industry agreement that systems based on gigantic language models, such as ChatGPT and Gemini, will have a huge impact on the way we interact with our devices.
Apple is expected to announce a partnership with OpenAI that will bring the company’s intelligent solutions to iPhone and Mac. Apple’s short-term strategy involves deep integration of existing solutions with generative artificial intelligence, with Siri in the spotlight. Since its debut in 2011, Apple has strived to make voice assistant an integral part of all its operating systems.
However, over the past 13 years, Siri has failed to achieve the revolution promised by Apple. There are many reasons, but the most essential one is opportunities. The concept of an artificial voice assistant predates Siri by decades, but there’s a reason no one has fully cracked it. As phone makers and app developers have turned smartphones into everything devices, the work of these assistants has become increasingly elaborate.
As impressive as Stanford Research Institute work was that the technology required to provide a frictionless experience simply wasn’t ready. Siri co-founder Norman Winarsky he turned to core issue in 2018, noting that Apple’s initial plan was for a much more narrow assistant that would handle things like entertainment and travel. “These are difficult problems, and when you’re a company that serves up to a billion people, the problems become even more difficult,” Winarsky noted at the time. “They are probably looking for a level of perfection that they cannot achieve.”
Generative AI is also not at this level of perfection – at least not yet. Hallucinations are still a problem. That’s why, even after the huge hype over the last few years, it still feels like we’re in a baby steps phase. For example, I would say that Google has been too aggressive in some places. The best example of this is the company’s decision to place Gemini results at the top of searches.
When something is prioritized over trusted resources on the world’s dominant search engine, it needs to fix things as much as possible rather than, you know, tell people to eat glue. Google labels Gemini a product of its “Search Lab,” but surely most users don’t understand what that means in terms of product maturity, nor do they bother to click for more information.
Over the past few years, I have encountered several researchers who have used the term “magic” to describe the results of the “black box” surrounding gigantic language models. This isn’t about being against all the amazing work happening in space, but about realizing that there’s still a lot we don’t know about this technology.
Arthur C. Clarke said it best: “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
However, one place where Google was more intentional was in integrating Gemini with Android. Instead of replacing Assistant outright, Google is integrating its generative artificial intelligence platform into a variety of apps. Users can also opt-in to making Gemini the default by assigning it to the Assistant button on Pixel devices. This implementation requires, at least for now, thoughtful action on the part of the user.
While Gemini hasn’t completely conquered Android yet, Google is clearly signaling that it will completely replace Assistant one day in the not-too-distant future. I half expected a similar announcement at I/O last month, although I’m glad they ultimately decided to give Gemini more time to bake.
Whether the Assistant name sticks ultimately depends on a branding decision. For its part, Apple is very attached to the Siri name. After all, he spent over a decade introducing the product to consumers. But sooner or later, generative AI will consume the knowledgeable assistant space.
Overall, voice assistants are having an existential moment. Intelligent speakers have broader support for platforms like Siri, Alexa, and Google Assistant. Supplies have dropped, after warming during the pandemic. It’s unfair to characterize this category as doomed to failure, but in the long run it will happen without a proper shot in the arm.
Generative AI is expected to be the logical successor, but the first batch of hardware devices built around these models, including the Humane Ai Pin and Rabbit R1, have only shown how far this category has to go before it can be considered coherent. experience for core users.
Apple will finally show its hand on Monday. Although rumors indicate that after the implosion of the electric car, the company transferred some employees to activities related to generative artificial intelligence, everything indicates that Apple has given up a significant advantage to the competition. Therefore, the most logical solution is to partner with a reigning power like OpenAI.
Shortly after announcing the acquisition of Siri, Steve Jobs was asked if the company was trying to beat Google at its own game. “It’s an artificial intelligence company,” Jobs noted. “We won’t do the search. We don’t care. Others do it well.”
The company’s approach to generative AI is now in the same place. At this point, Apple can’t beat OpenAI at its own game, so it collaborates instead. However, even the best of today’s models still have a long way to go before they are ready to completely replace the current range of intelligent assistants.