Asteroid 2024 YR4, By measuring about 40 to 100 meters wide, it will go very close to Earth in December 2032 – and can even hit the planet. Due to its size, speed and possibility of influence, the internet gave him the nickname “city destroyer”.
Main space agencies such as European Space AgencyIt is estimated that there is about 2 percent of the chance that 2024 YR4 will hit the ground, although the number of risk will be updated when scientists learn more about the asteroid path. Although it is much more likely that the asteroid will miss the ground, the places where the collision may affect have already been identified.
The destructive potential 2024 YR4 depends on its composition, speed and weight. Because the asteroid is still very far away, these features can only be estimated, and therefore the consequences of the strike are also somewhat imprecise forecasts at this stage. Currently, astronomers believe that 2024 YR4 would create Air Burst -ub an explosion in the air-inflow, which would be equivalent to almost 8 million ton TNT, i.e. 500 times greater strength of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. This explosion would more or less affect the radius of 50-kilometers around the place of impact.
In the case of a collision location, some experts such as David Rankin, an engineer from the NASA Catalina Sky Survey project, sketched the “risk corridor”. According to the current path of the asteroid, and if the 2 % probability becomes reality, the asteroid should fall somewhere on the group of territory stretching from North South America, through the Pacific Ocean, to South Asia, the Arab Sea and Africa. Countries such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia and Ecuador would be threatened.
The threat posed by asteroids and comet, which could potentially hit the ground, is measured on 11-point Torino scale: The higher the result, the greater the risk that the traveler’s facility will affect the ground and cause vast amounts of damage. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is current at level 3, which means that it is vast enough and will pass close enough to be careful monitoring. However, most international agencies are convinced that the level of risk will fall to zero over time, because the asteroid trajectories will become more pronounced. Initially, the probability of impact was 1.2 percent. Then it was corrected to 2.3 percent before the latest rating reduced the risk to 2 percent.
This is not the first time that such a warning has been raised, nor 2024 YR4 is the most risky object of space that has been monitored. Asteroid ApophisWhat was discovered in 2004, sometimes obtained higher than 2024 YR4 both on a Torino scale and the probability of collision. Shortly after its discovery, he received a 2.7 percent chance to hit the earth. However, after a few months and better observations, scientists adapted their calculations to more realistic values. Now, although in 2029 it will pass very close to Earth, the chances of collision are zero.
In response to 2024 YR4, the UN activated the emergency protocol for the protection of the planet. For now, considering that the asteroid is at level 3 of Torino scale, this is circumscribed to continuous monitoring to understand the movements of the asteroid.
Funds are also developed to protect the Earth against asteroids with destructive potential. These include kinetic strikes, in which rockets are sent into space to collide with asteroids to tear them off the path of collision with earth. The Dart NASA 2023 mission has proven that such strikes can be launched and that they can carry space objects by testing this technique on a harmless asteroid called Dimorphos.
This story originally appeared Wired in Spanish and was translated from Spanish.