Extreme heat will be one of the biggest challenges for players and fans during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. According to an analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA), approximately 25 percent of the tournament’s 104 matches may have been played at temperatures above recommended thermal safety limits. The study found that such conditions are almost twice as likely to occur than those recorded during a 1994 tournament held in the United States.
The forecasts were developed using a statistical model designed to calculate the probability of each match being played in extremely heated conditions. To assess the risk of physiological heat stress in host facilities, scientists used saturated ball temperature, known as WBGT. This index provides a more exact measurement of the thermal sensations felt by the human body because it takes into account not only the ambient temperature, but also variables such as humidity, solar radiation and wind speed.
The analysis individually took into account all cities in the United States, Mexico and Canada that will host World Cup matches in 2026. For this purpose, specific local factors were taken into account, including altitude, ambient humidity, regional climate and urban characteristics of each site.
The researchers analyzed historical daily WBGT records from June 11 to July 19, the planned dates of the tournament. They then compared these values with the safety limits set by FIFPro, the international footballers’ association.
The organization set the WBGT at 26° Celsius (78.8° Fahrenheit) as the threshold above which additional hydration and cooling measures would be required to protect players. A temperature of 28°C (82.4°F) is considered high risk and is the upper limit at which the organization recommends delaying or even suspending matches to avoid potential health risks.
Based on these parameters, the study concluded that one in four games could be played under the first risk scenario, while at least five games would be played in conditions at or above 82°F on the WBGT index.
The report warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas and Houston present a particularly troubling scenario. The results indicate that these cities have a recovery period of just one year to reach temperatures as high as 82.4° Fahrenheit WBGT. In other words, there is a high probability that these extreme conditions will be repeated virtually every year during World Cup competitions.
The same frequency trend for the WBGT threshold of 78.8° Fahrenheit is also observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston and Modern York, as well as in the Mexican city of Monterrey.
The study emphasizes that the escalate in these threats is closely related to the increasing global warming recorded in recent decades. For games played in temperatures of 82.4°F, the likelihood of their occurrence has at least doubled since 1994 in cities such as Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Monterrey, Toronto and Vancouver, all of which are hosting games in this World Cup.
Rubén del Campo, spokesman for the Spanish National Meteorological Agency, explained to SMC Spain that since 1994, the average global temperature has increased by 0.5 to 0.7 degrees Celsius. “This is a number that may not seem very high, but represents approximately half of the warming observed over the last century and a half. Moreover, since the mid-1990s, when the previous World Cup was held in the United States, the effects of climate change have intensified across the planet, especially heatwaves,” del Campo told SMC Spain.
The 2026 World Cup will be played in stifling heat
The WWA report joins other recent research that warns of extreme weather conditions predicted for the World Cup. Overdue 2024 study published in the journal Scientific Reports warned that 10 of the 16 host stadiums have a “very high” risk of extreme heat, with two of them likely to particularly affect players and participants.
Research shows that the stadiums with the highest risk of severe heat stress are Arlington and Houston stadiums in Texas and BBVA Stadium in Monterrey.